ATACMS in Ukraine.

In the context of the recent US aids package that allegedly includes more ATACMS rounds let’s talk about the current state of the Russian theatre BMD.

First - the shooters.

Presently the most common BMD capable systems would be (a) S-300PM/S-400 and Buk-M2/M3.

After those there is (b) the S-300V3/4.

There are also new generation systems in limited service (c) - S-350 and S-500.

The challenge (a) category has is the BMD search capability. Buk, even current mods, has very limited BMD performance, S-400 can do better, ie with its battle management radar, but even it is rather underwhelming.

Otherwise, despite limited protected area, it works.

The (b) category has all the organic assets it needs, including a specialized sector radar, the challenge with it is more to do with limited (if greater than for (a)) protected area and limited available numbers, making long term sustained surveillance challenging.

The (c) category shares many of the same issues as (b), though in case of S-500 we can expect better performance and in case of S-350 better numbers (eventually).

S-500 appears to follow in S-300V steps with a capable organic search option.

S-350 in general is a reasonably capable system, meant to replace the S-300P series in the MRSAM role, while S-400/500 evolves into the LRSAM mission.

It has decent performance for both MFR and SR in the BMD mode and a PAC-3 like lightweight interceptor - 9M96 series.

So the challenge is, as often is in case of BMD, in sensors and C3.

While it is possible to integrate different SAM systems, ie have an S-300V4 unit support several S-400 units with it’s BMD radar, common legacy C3 systems have long cycles, ie ~10s for Pyramid.

The same would apply to introducing dedicated radars to support SAM groupings, unless they are attached to individual systems.

Of course there are new C3 systems available with shorter cycles, but they are less common.

Better organization is thus important.

In ideal world we would have both the fast acting C3 connecting shooters to separate dedicated sensors, ie combination of 29V6 and 80P6, for EW and tracking/discrimination respectively, but those radars are expensive, valuable and currently do not cover some launch areas.

But even if such or less complex sensors were widely available, there are still organizational challenges, ie defending them against Ukrainian suppression efforts.

Or in other words, even if we say had spare 80P6 sets it would be more complex than putting them at Taman.