Listening to Richard Moore & Bill Burns at Kenwood House.

Burns: “we have no better foreign partner in the world than SIS”

Moore says CIA and SIS follow the “best athlete model”- whoever is best placed to go after a target, does so.

Moore asked whether Russia, China, Iran and North Korea share intelligence. “In our world there are signs of them co-operating.” Says it’s of a “profoundly different quality” to the values-based SIS-CIA, Five Eyes & European intelligence relationships.

Burns says neither UK nor US has seen direct evidence of Chinese weapons or munitions deliveries to Russia “but we see lots of things just short of that” that have helped rebuild Russia’s defence industrial base.

Bill Burns says if Iran shipped ballistic missiles to Russia “it would be a dramatic escalation of the nature of their defense partnership”

Burns: “Kursk offensive is a significant tactical achievement…has exposed some of the vulnerabilities of Putin’s Russia.” Says Putin narrative is that time on his side & that he can dictate terms. Says that Kursk, like Prigozhin mutiny, has “put a dent” in that narrative.

Burns: “I don’t see any evidence today that Putin’s grip on power is weakening”

Moore: “don’t confuse a tight grip with a stable grip”

Moore asked how to deter Russian sabotage. “You do it by good really old fashioned security & intelligence work , you do it by identifying the Russian IOs behind it & the criminal elements.” Says using criminals is sign of Russian desperation- “usually we’re able to roll them up”

Is there any sign that Russia facilitating migration into the US through Mexico? “That’s something we are very sharply focused on,” says Bill Burns. Says Russian intel officers expelled from Europe have been looking for places to go.

Burns asked about Gaza talks. Focus is on first phase, six-week ceasefire & prisoner release, then infusion of “desperately needed” aid.. Says that framework is being refined with Egypt and Qatar for a “good enough” proposal. Says 90% of paras agreed but last 10% hardest.

Burns: “This [Gaza deal] is ultimately a question of political will. Whether or not leaders are prepared to recognise that enough is enough…I hope profoundly that both of those leaders are going to make that decision.”

Is the west willing to put pressure on leaders to get a ceasefire? Burns: “we have to be … there has been a very hard push … that’s a critical role for the United States to play.” Says anyone with influence over Hamas needs to do the same.

Burns asked if Hamas capacity has been decimated. “Over the last 11 months” IDF has “severely degraded” the group, but says Hamas is both “despicable terrorist org” and also a “movement and an idea” - and only way to defeat an idea is with a  better idea.

Will Iran still retaliate for Haniyeh? Moore: “I suspect they will try and we won’t be able to let our guard down for the type of activity they might try and prosecute.” Points to “destabilising playbook” in region. (Doesn’t suggest Apr 13 type missile strikes, tho)